It may be of interest to some people - there is an old (1986) article which I read recently and I thought it was excellent. It describes that there have been large increases in programmer efficiency due to certain technologies (high level languages, IDEs etc) however now these are around there will be no "silver bullet" i.e. a new technology to vastly improve programmer efficiency.
Although written in 1986 it is still very topical and as true as it has ever been. The abridged version is at http://www.virtualschool.edu/mon/SoftwareEngineering/BrooksNoSilverBullet.html
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